Don't Be Fooled by the Dip: Gold’s 2025 High May Be In, But 2026 Will Be the Breakout Year

Gold’s 2025 Dip: A Setup for the 2026 Breakout

Let’s be honest—2025’s gold run might have hit a speed bump, but if you think the bull market is over, you’re not paying attention. According to Ole Hansen over at Saxo Bank, what we’re seeing now is not a reversal… it’s a breather. And if history’s any guide, 2026 could be a rocket ride for precious metals.

Now, I’ve been around long enough to know that markets don’t move in straight lines. Back in the late ‘70s, I watched gold go from sleepy to sky-high practically overnight—after a stretch of "consolidation" just like this. What we’re seeing now? It rhymes.

Gold's Cooling Off—but It’s Just Catching Its Breath

Hansen—Saxo’s head of commodity strategy—put it plainly: the gold market has shifted from exuberance to reflection. Traders are taking a moment to reassess after a big run-up based on interest rate cuts, fiscal chaos, geopolitical tension, and central bank buying.

And guess what? None of that has gone away.

In fact, central bank demand—especially from China and the BRICS nations—is still humming along. The World Gold Council clocked 220 tonnes of official gold purchases in Q3 alone, pushing 2025’s total so far to 634 tonnes, nearly breaking last year’s record. That kind of consistent buying doesn’t just happen—it’s a strategy. And it's not a coincidence that it’s mostly the countries trying to ditch the U.S. dollar leading the charge.

Now, we’re also getting the usual seasonal lull after India’s festival demand slowed down. Add in some new Chinese tax changes on jewelry retailers, and you get what looks like a dip. But the real story? Investment-grade gold—bars, coins, and ETFs—remains untouched. The smart money isn't selling.

Powell’s Dollar Games: A Headwind, Not a Wall

Yes, the Fed threw a wrench in things. Jerome Powell tossed cold water on hopes for a December rate cut, pushing the dollar up and nudging real yields higher. That’s cooled enthusiasm temporarily, but it doesn’t change the big picture.

Debt’s still through the roof, inflation isn’t dead, and the global chessboard is more unstable than ever. The U.S. and China can smile for the cameras all they want, but under the surface, the tech war, supply chain de-risking, and de-dollarization efforts are only intensifying.

All of this adds up to one thing: Gold remains your lifeboat in a storm.

Technical Picture: Healthy Correction, Not a Crash

Technically speaking, Hansen points out gold is finding strong support between $3,835 and $3,878—right around the 50-day moving average and 50% retracement from its recent run. That’s a classic setup for a base before the next move higher.

Sure, we could see more chop if stock markets stay bubbly and the dollar keeps flexing, but Hansen says this isn’t a liquidation. ETF flows show only a mild reduction in longs, not a panic exit.

What does that tell you? Smart investors are holding steady, not bailing out.

2026: The Year of the Next Breakout

Let’s rewind to earlier this year: gold broke out after four months of consolidation and ran up 27% in just nine weeks. Hansen thinks we’re in a similar holding pattern now. Give it a few more months of sideways movement, and we could see that same rocket fuel ignite again—right around early 2026.

And when that happens, it won’t be gentle.

We’re talking a renewed flight to safety, an avalanche of money fleeing fiat, and central banks doubling down on their anti-dollar positioning.

Final Thoughts from a Guy Who's Seen This Before

Look, if you’re feeling unsure because gold dipped, I get it. It’s tough out there. But think of gold like an old pickup truck—it might rattle a bit when it idles, but when it starts moving, it doesn’t stop. And with everything going on—ballooning debt, bloated markets, digital surveillance tools like FedNow creeping into our lives—it’s not a question of if gold makes its next move. It’s when.

And when it does, you don’t want to be left holding paper.

⚠️ Action Steps to Protect Yourself Now:

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Stay sharp,
Frank Balm