Gold Glimmers Amid Pre-Jackson Hole Anticipation

EDITOR'S NOTE: If gold rises in anticipation of the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit, it’s a testament to the lack of faith in the Fed’s ability to guide the economy. In a dance of short covering and corrective rebounds, gold and silver prices experience a minor uptick during midday U.S. trading, with gold briefly touching a five-month low in overnight trading. As the trading week begins with rising U.S. Treasury yields and persistently bearish charts, the precious metals' upward potential remains constrained. Market activity is expected to wane as investors brace for the annual Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week, where global central bankers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are poised to share insights that often ignite market reactions.

Gold prices are slightly up and silver prices are solidly up in midday U.S. trading Monday, with gold poking to another five-month low in overnight trading. Short covering, corrective rebounds are featured in the two precious metals. However, rising U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week and still-bearish charts are limiting the upside for gold and silver. Trading may be more subdued this week, ahead of the late-week annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday. December gold was last up $1.80 at $1,918.40 and September silver was up $0.442 at $23.175.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday in quieter trading.

In overnight news, the People's Bank of China cut its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45%, while unexpectedly holding steady the five-year rate at 4.2%. Most economists had predicted a 15 basis-point cut. Monday’s move came after a surprising reduction in both short-term loan rates and the medium-term rate by the central bank last week, as it seeks to strike a balance between helping the economy and stemming further depreciation of the Chinese yuan. The Hang Seng stock index declined, headed for its lowest close since November. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s 40-year boom is over, raising fears of extended slump.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.338%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

Source: Kitco

Technically, December gold futures were up $1.70 at $1,918.20 in midday trading and nearer the session low. Prices hit another five-month low today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,980.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,927.90 and then at $1,938.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,913.60 and then at $1,900.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Source: Kitco

September silver futures were up $0.437 at $23.17 at midday and nearer the session high. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.36 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.71 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 371.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 356.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 374.90 cents and then at 378.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 368.45 cents and then at the August low of 362.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

Originally published by Jim Wyckoff at Kitco