Alt Money

Will Gold Shine In 2024?

  • Gold set to gain 13% to mark best year in three

  • Silver eyes small yearly decline, platinum down more than 7%

  • Palladium down 38% so far this year - biggest drop since 2008

Dec 29 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Friday as they headed towards the end of their best year since 2020 at levels comfortably above $2,000 an ounce, buoyed by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as March.

Spot gold was at $2,064.34 per ounce by 2:10 p.m. ET (1910 GMT), little changed from the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% lower at $2,071.80.

Bullion has so far risen 13% in a year that saw prices swing between lows near $1,800 and a record high of $2,135.40.

Source: Reuters

"The ship is moving towards calmer waters, so to speak - a lower rate environment, which means a lower dollar, and so gold should do better," Marex analyst Edward Meir said.

Gold investors anticipate record-high prices next year, when the fundamentals of a dovish pivot in U.S. interest rates, continued geopolitical risk, and central bank buying are expected to support the market.

"To see higher levels, we need to see stronger demand from investors, such as a pickup in ETF inflows. For that weaker U.S. economic data and lower inflation is needed, so that the Fed sounds more dovish," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

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Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar.

The dollar index (.DXY) was headed for a 2% decline in 2023, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields languished near their lowest levels since July.

"The rest of the precious metals complex hasn't shared in gold's good fortune and gold prices are quite elevated, given the nominal level of interest rates," said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to $23.82 per ounce, looking set for a 0.6% yearly decline.

Platinum fell 1.2% to $990.75, while palladium dropped 2.7% to $1,102.54. Both autocatalytic metals were on track to end the year lower, with palladium down 38% - its biggest drop since 2008.

The palladium market is in a surplus next year and not in a sweet spot for the future due to the shift to electric vehicles, which don't need the metal, Meir said.

Originally published by: Deep Vakil, Hissay Ongmu Bhutia and Swati Verma on Reuters

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