Close-up,Of,A,Gold-ingot,On,Top,Of,A,Troy,Ounce

A Bold Fed Rate Cut Could Launch Gold Above $3,700 — Silver’s Set to Follow

Frank Balm Sep 16, 25

Let’s talk straight: the Fed’s standing at a crossroads again, and the decision they make in the coming weeks could light a fire under gold like we haven’t seen in years.

Robert Minter, Director of ETF Strategy at abrdn, recently told Kitco News that gold’s recent strength is just the beginning — and if the Fed decides to make a bold move, we could see gold sail well past $3,700 an ounce before year’s end.

That kind of breakout would turn heads, but here’s the kicker: the Fed’s already boxed itself into a corner, and even a move that looks aggressive could be spun as “justified” by the data. And let’s be honest—those of us paying attention know the numbers they’re working with are already behind the curve.

A 50-Point Cut Is on the Table — Whether the Market Believes It or Not

Right now, the CME FedWatch tool says there’s less than a 5% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. But Minter says that’s a short-sighted view.

It wasn’t even being talked about a few weeks ago — and now it’s a real possibility. Why? Because the data the Fed’s relying on to “stay the course” is falling apart in real time.

We’re seeing recession risks creep back in, job growth softening, and unemployment claims rising. And just last week, the BLS dropped a bomb: they overstated job numbers by nearly a million. That’s not a rounding error — that’s the largest downward revision in history.

Minter’s Take: The Fed Has a Window to Get Ahead of a Recession

According to Minter, the Fed has a rare opportunity to get out in front of the storm. A 50-point cut might normally be read as a panic move, but right now, it could be packaged as proactive.

“They have an excuse with the data to make a bigger move,” Minter said. “And they can come out and say they’re trying to get ahead of any recession threat.”

Even if they don’t pull the trigger, they can send a powerful message with their projections. If the dot plots show a prolonged easing cycle — especially one that stretches into 2026 — that’s all gold needs to take off again.

And he’s not wrong. Two-year yields are already telling the story: they’re signaling the Fed is a full 100 basis points behind where they should be. That kind of gap doesn’t close quietly.

Monetary Policy by Rearview Mirror

Minter made a great analogy that hits home:

“It’s like trying to drive a car looking through the rearview mirror.”

Powell and company are making decisions today based on months-old data, when the ground beneath their feet is already shifting. That lag is dangerous. By the time the Fed reacts, it’s usually too late — and gold markets know it.

The last time we saw the Fed this far behind the curve, gold shot up like a rocket. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.

Don’t Sleep on Silver

Minter’s bullish on silver too — and I couldn’t agree more. He sees it rising alongside gold, but not just because of monetary policy. He’s also looking at the industrial side, especially in emerging markets.

Countries are pouring money into energy independence, infrastructure, and capex — all of which require large amounts of silver. As long as those trends hold, silver has a second engine pushing it higher.

And let’s not forget: when silver runs, it runs hard. It's the metal with torque. It may lag gold at first, but once it gets going, it plays catch-up in a hurry.

Final Thought: If the Fed Moves, Gold Moves Fast

Whether the Fed makes a bold 50-point cut or just signals it’s ready to keep rates low into 2026, the writing is already on the wall. The dollar is weakening, real rates are still too high, and the policy lag is widening by the day.

And when gold senses that the Fed is blinking? It doesn’t wait for permission — it leaps.