America’s Delusion of Prosperity: Why the Economy’s “Good News” Is a Mirage

The Numbers They Don’t Want You to Question Sure, retail sales rose 0.6% in June. But that’s not inflation-adjusted. Strip away the illusion of dollar value and ask: are Americans actually buying more, or are they just paying more for less? And let’s not forget that May saw retail sales plummet by nearly 1%. That so-called "rebound" was merely a dead cat bounce, not a sign of real momentum. Even then, the sales growth was narrowly concentrated: auto dealerships, home improvement chains, and “miscellaneous retailers” (read: pet toys and flower shops) did the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, department stores, furniture outlets, and electronics retailers are still bleeding out — clear casualties of a middle class squeezed to the brink. Unemployment filings may be down, but continued claims — people still collecting benefits week after week — rose to 1.96 million in July, a canary in the coal mine for sluggish re-employment. If the labor market were truly strong, these numbers would be falling. They're not. They're rising. False Signals in a System Built to Mislead The economists quoted — like Nationwide’s Ben Ayers — act as if steady consumer income and “delayed tariff impacts” justify optimism. But that’s like claiming the fire hasn’t started because the smoke hasn’t reached your room yet. The Philadelphia Fed’s sunny hiring expectations? Nothing more than the same predictive hopium peddled in 2006 when banks were still handing out subprime mortgages like Halloween candy. That didn’t end well either. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking tool pegs Q2 growth at 2.6%. But remember — that number is being propped up by normalized imports following a Q1 rush to front-load goods before tariffs hit. Translation: this isn’t growth. It’s hoarding. And the tariffs? That’s the storm cloud no one in the press room wants to talk about. Import prices for consumer goods rose 0.4% in June — the biggest monthly jump in over a year — and that doesn’t even account for the latest round of tariffs. Once those effects hit the ledger, expect consumer prices to soar. Historical Parallels: We've Been Here Before Let’s roll back the tape to 1928. Consumer spending was high, stock prices were higher, and mainstream newspapers celebrated the “New Era” of prosperity. One year later — the crash of 1929. Same tune in 2000. Dot-com stocks soared, jobless numbers dropped, and Greenspan himself called the market “healthy.” Months later — the tech bubble burst. And then again in 2007. Real estate looked unstoppable, jobless claims were “low,” and everyone said the fundamentals were strong. Then came the Great Recession. This economy — today’s economy — echoes those precursors in eerie harmony. What They Won’t Tell You About Consumer Confidence Consumer spending is not a vote of confidence — it’s a cry for help. Americans are buying because they’re terrified of falling behind. The real driver? Debt. Household credit card balances have surpassed $1.13 trillion, a record high. Personal savings rates have plunged. We’re not building wealth — we’re burning through it. This isn’t organic growth. It’s desperation masked as demand. Meanwhile, the Fed has backed itself into a corner. With inflation still lurking and rate cuts politically radioactive, their hands are tied. So instead of a proactive policy response, we get posturing and wordplay — the illusion of control in a system spiraling out of it. Corporate America’s Smoke and Mirrors CEOs say they’re “optimistic,” but actions speak louder. Stock buybacks are at near-record levels — not investment in workers, not R&D, but financial engineering to inflate share prices. Why? Because executives know what’s coming. They're cashing out before the bottom falls out. Add to that the warning signs from the bond market: yield curve inversions, rising default risks on corporate junk debt, and a real estate sector bloated with speculative cash. This isn't strength. It's fragility. The Coming Reckoning We are not in a boom. We are not in recovery. We are in a holding pattern above a financial fault line. The real economy — the one that feeds families, pays rent, and builds futures — is teetering. Consumer optimism is not a leading indicator; it’s a lagging one. By the time fear shows up in the numbers, the damage is done. The media wants you to focus on the bull’s back, stacked neatly with meditation pebbles — balance, peace, prosperity. But underneath that beast lies a time bomb of leveraged speculation, dislocated labor markets, and a government too politically fractured to respond effectively. So, no — the economy isn’t fine. It's a porcelain doll on a shelf full of dynamite.

America’s Delusion of Prosperity: Why the Economy’s “Good News” Is a Mirage

Bill Brocius Jul 18

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