Don’t Be Fooled by the Dip – Gold Is Still Gunning for $4,200 (or More), Says UBS

Let me tell you something my old man used to say when I panicked over little things as a kid: “The train’s still headed north, son. Just slowed down to pick up more passengers.” That’s exactly what we’re seeing in the gold market right now.

You might be looking at this recent dip and wondering if the ride’s over. It’s not. According to UBS—yes, that UBS, one of the most powerful financial institutions in the world—this correction is purely technical, and the long-term fundamentals still scream “BUY.” In fact, they’re calling for $4,200 gold, with an upside scenario that could take us all the way to $4,700 per ounce.

You read that right.

The Sell-Off? Just a Breather.

UBS laid it out plain: there’s no real reason gold should be dropping right now. The recent slip was due to a few technical quirks—some short-term trading behavior and fading price momentum. Futures traders hit the brakes, not because the fundamentals changed, but because the chart told them to. That’s not investing; that’s reflex.

Meanwhile, demand is roaring beneath the surface.

Central Banks Are Loading Up – Again

UBS pointed to the latest numbers from the World Gold Council. Central banks have already bought over 634 metric tons of gold this year, and they’re accelerating their pace heading into the fourth quarter. The full-year forecast? Between 900 and 950 metric tons.

And let’s not forget individual investors like you and me. ETF inflows hit 222 metric tons, and physical bar and coin demand has stayed above 300 metric tons for the fourth quarter in a row. That’s not noise—that’s conviction.

And get this: jewelry demand, which often falls when prices rise, hasn’t been as weak as expected. That means the love for gold is still cultural, emotional, and growing—even at these elevated price levels.

Why Gold’s Just Getting Started

Sagar Khandelwal from UBS Wealth Management nailed the big picture: real interest rates are on their way down. Inflation isn’t going anywhere. The U.S. government is drowning in debt. And the dollar? It’s on life support.

That’s the perfect storm for gold.

If the Fed starts slashing rates while inflation remains sticky (which is exactly what they're hinting at), real interest rates could go negative. That’s a massive tailwind for gold. Why would anyone want to hold dollars or Treasuries when they’re losing value against inflation? You wouldn’t. And neither would the big players.

In fact, in just one month—September—global gold ETFs saw $17 billion in inflows. Over three months, that number hit $26 billion, the strongest quarter on record. That’s not some fringe movement—that’s a stampede.

$4,200? That’s Conservative

UBS thinks we’ll hit $4,200 soon. But if global instability keeps growing—and let’s face it, between war in the Middle East, currency wars, and collapsing trust in governments everywhere, it will—then gold could spike as high as $4,700 by Q1 of 2026.

And here’s something most people miss: when gold runs, mining stocks often run even faster. UBS recommends picking up select miners because their cash flows could explode as prices climb. That’s like buying the oil well instead of just the oil.

How Much Gold Should You Own?

UBS says you should have a “mid-single-digit” percentage of your portfolio in gold. That’s 5–10%. Personally? I think that’s the bare minimum. If your savings are parked in fiat, you’re sitting in a leaky boat. The water’s rising, and the lifeboat is made of gold and silver.

If you’re still not convinced, ask yourself this: Why are central banks ditching U.S. Treasuries and gobbling up gold? Why is demand at record highs while mainstream media yawns? Why is the Fed quietly prepping for FedNow and digital currencies while the dollar loses ground?

It’s all connected. The system is shifting. And those who don’t shift with it are going to get left behind.

Here’s What You Can Do Right Now:

✅ Download Bill Brocius’ free eBook, “Seven Steps to Protect Yourself from Bank Failure,” and learn how to prepare before the next crisis hits. Get the eBook here

✅ Subscribe to Dedollarize’s exclusive alerts and never miss an update on gold, silver, CBDCs, and how to protect your financial freedom. Join the community here

✅ Talk to a trusted precious metals advisor about reallocating a portion of your wealth into physical gold and silver. Not paper promises. The real stuff.

You don’t wait for your house to burn down before you buy insurance. You don’t wait for the dollar to collapse before you protect your wealth.

Gold isn’t a trade—it’s a lifeline.

Stay sharp out there,
– Frank Balm