No, Tariffs Didn’t Save the Budget—They Just Distracted You from the Real Tax Drain

EDITOR'S NOTES

Ryan McMaken’s latest piece “No, Tariffs Did Not Cause September’s Budget Surplus,” is essential reading—but I’ll be honest, it’s also dense. If you’re not already steeped in economics, a lot of it may slide right past you. So, consider this my breakdown—not a “dumbing down,” but a guided reading for those who want to grasp the big picture without wading knee-deep in budget minutiae. Because what the article is really showing here is just how thoroughly the political class manipulates economic illusions—and how those illusions keep ordinary Americans on the hook.

Eric Blair Oct 28, 25

Washington’s Budget “Surplus” Is a Mirage—Here’s Why It Matters

Let’s start with the headline claim: the federal government ran a budget surplus in September 2025—meaning it collected more in taxes than it spent that month. Sounds like good news, right?

Well, don’t pop the champagne. The only reason for the surplus was a temporary plunge in spending, not some miraculous influx of tariff cash like Trump and his circle want you to believe.

What Actually Happened?

In September, federal outlays (spending) fell off a cliff, dropping by nearly 50% from August to September—from $689 billion down to $345 billion. That is not normal, but it’s not entirely unheard of either. Historically, spending tends to dip in September before ramping back up in October. This isn’t a sign of fiscal discipline—it’s a seasonal anomaly.

Meanwhile, tax revenue jumped 57%, up to $543 billion. That sounds impressive until you realize this is also seasonal. It happens every year, like clockwork, due to end-of-fiscal-year accounting and corporate tax payment schedules. In fact, the increase this year wasn’t even remarkable—smaller than most years in the past decade.

So:
✅ Yes, we had a surplus in September.
❌ No, it doesn’t mean we’re on a better path.

Did Tariffs Help?

No. And this is the crux of McMaken’s article.

Trump and his media ecosystem have been promoting the idea that tariffs—essentially taxes on imported goods—are flooding the Treasury with cash. Some of the numbers thrown around are absurd, with Trump recently claiming “trillions of dollars” are coming in from tariffs. Reality check: total tariff revenue since Trump took office is about $120 billion. That’s not trillions. That’s not even one trillion.

In September, tariffs brought in $31 billion, which amounts to about 5.7% of total revenue. In the Treasury’s own charts, tariff revenue isn’t even broken out—it’s lumped under “other.” That’s how small it is.

So when Trump brags about the government’s big haul, he’s really just bragging about income tax revenue. In other words, they’re patting themselves on the back for extracting more money from you.

Who Actually Pays These Tariffs?

Here’s another myth that needs to die: the idea that “only foreigners pay tariffs.” That’s economically illiterate. Tariffs are baked into the prices of goods. Importers pass the cost on to businesses and consumers. So you, the American buyer, end up footing the bill—whether it’s at Walmart, the auto dealership, or the grocery store.

So while the administration spins a populist narrative about “soaking the Chinese,” the truth is they’re just taxing Americans through the back door.

The Real Problem: Interest on the Debt Is Exploding

Let’s talk about what is real in the Treasury report: interest payments.

In September alone, the U.S. government spent $91 billion just servicing the national debt. That’s nearly one out of every six dollars it collected. It’s also the largest single category of spending outside of welfare programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Year to date, interest payments have crossed $1.22 trillion—up from $1.13 trillion at this point last year. That’s a big jump, and it’s accelerating.

This is what happens when you run endless deficits and then raise interest rates into a mountain of debt: servicing the debt becomes the budget. And every dollar spent on interest is a dollar that can’t go to roads, schools, or anything even remotely productive (not that Washington does much of that either).

What Comes Next?

As McMaken points out, October will likely bring another massive deficit. The September surplus was just a blip—a timing fluke, not a trend. The three-month average deficit is getting worse, not better. And with rising interest costs, aging entitlement obligations, and endless military expenditures (not to mention the newly expanded war funding), Washington’s addiction to debt is terminal.

But instead of addressing that, politicians are spinning fairy tales about tariffs and “balanced budgets,” hoping no one reads the actual numbers. Most won’t. That’s the plan.

The Takeaway: They’re Lying, and You’re Paying

Let’s be clear: neither Trump nor Biden nor anyone else in the current political establishment is serious about reducing deficits. They’re all playing budget shell games—shifting costs, inflating numbers, and taxing you invisibly while pretending it’s someone else paying.

Tariffs won’t save you. Politicians won’t save you. The only real defense is individual financial independence. That means getting your money out of the system as much as possible—owning real assets like gold, silver, and decentralized crypto, not relying on government promises.

Ready to Take Control? Here’s What You Can Do:

📘 Read Bill Brocius’ must-have book: End of Banking As You Know It
🔐 Download the free survival guide: 7 Steps to Protect Your Account from Bank Failure
📬 Join Bill’s Inner Circle Newsletter for just $19.95/month: direct insights, hard data, and unfiltered commentary you won’t get from mainstream media.

When the next “surprise” crisis hits, don’t be caught unprepared. The Treasury will keep printing. The debt will keep growing. But your money doesn’t have to be their hostage.

— Eric Blair