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The Fed’s Rate Cut Gambit: Betting Your Future on a Slowing Economy and One-Time Tariffs

EDITOR'S NOTES

The Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates even as inflation ticks up and consumer spending holds firm. At first glance, the move seems contradictory—until you dig into the deeper rot behind the headline numbers. In this breakdown, Eric Blair dissects what the Fed isn’t saying out loud: that they’re preparing to slash rates not because the economy is healthy, but because it’s quietly breaking under the surface. As always, Blair urges readers to prepare for what’s coming—not what the media wants you to believe.

Eric Blair Sep 2, 25

Inflation Rising, But the Fed’s Slashing Anyway

In a move that defies basic logic—but not Fed logic—the central planners in Washington are preparing to cut interest rates within weeks, despite inflation running hot and consumer activity appearing “strong” on paper. The truth? That strength is paper-thin, and the Fed knows it.

July’s inflation came in firm. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), rose 2.9% year-over-year—its fourth consecutive increase. Consumer spending and incomes also ticked up, with personal income rising 0.4% and spending up 0.5%. These aren’t recession numbers—so why the sudden urgency to cut rates?

Because behind the curtain, the wheels are coming off.

Behind the Curtain: An Economy in Slow-Motion Collapse

Federal Reserve officials are now openly admitting what they can no longer hide: growth is stalling. Christopher Waller, one of the more vocal Fed governors—and a possible heir to Powell’s throne—recently confessed that the first half of 2025 saw GDP growth crawl at just 1.2%. That’s an economy in stagnation, not expansion.

Despite an upward revision in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast to 3.5% for Q3, the optimism hinges on volatile, one-off data points—like swings in auto and recreational vehicle sales. That’s not sustainable growth. That’s smoke and mirrors.

Tariffs, Disposable Income, and the Quiet Squeeze

Meanwhile, tariffs—those same policies that Washington pretends are inflation-neutral—are quietly squeezing households. Waller warned that tariffs are draining consumer purchasing power by pushing up prices and choking real disposable income. The Fed’s solution? Cut rates to soften the blow, not because the economy is overheating, but because it’s slowly suffocating under its own weight.

Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon summed it up clearly: “Households are struggling to push through.” The Fed is reading the same tea leaves, and they’re panicking. Cutting rates now is a Hail Mary to avoid the inevitable—another recession, or worse, a full-blown debt implosion.

The Real Risk: Inflation + Rate Cuts = Wealth Destruction

And what happens when rates are slashed while inflation remains sticky? Savers get punished. Retirees lose purchasing power. The dollar takes another hit. And the Fed buys a few more months of illusion at the expense of your long-term financial security.

This isn’t economic management. It’s desperation dressed in policy language.

The Bottom Line: Act Before They Pull the Rug Again

The Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates not because they’ve tamed inflation, but because the economy is cracking in slow motion. Don’t wait for the collapse to hit the headlines. Prepare now.

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