Wall Street’s Lying—Gold Is Not a Crowded Trade (But It Will Be Soon)
The Crowd Is Not Where You Think It Is
Here we go again. Bank of America just ran a poll, asking fund managers what they think is the “most crowded trade.” And guess what topped the list?
Gold.
Nearly half of 'em—49%—said gold was the busiest trade on the block.
Now, as someone who’s been watching this space since the '70s—when gas lines were long and trust in Washington was short—I can tell you this:
They’re dead wrong.
These suits don’t understand the gold market. They haven’t positioned their clients for it, they missed the run, and now they’re grumbling from the sidelines because they’re embarrassed.
If anything, gold is criminally under-owned. Let me break it down in plain terms.
The Numbers Don’t Lie—Gold Is Under-Owned, Not Overbought
If this were a “crowded” trade, we’d be seeing a flood of money pouring into gold ETFs like GLD and PHYS, right?
But we’re not.
Take a look at the data from Topdown Charts (I’ll summarize since we don’t have the visual here): only 2% of all ETF assets are currently in gold. Back in 2011, during the last major bull market, that number was over 8%.
That’s a quarter of what it used to be.
So let me ask you—if gold is truly overcrowded, where’s the money?
Even worse—or better for us—gold miner ETFs are sitting at a pathetic 0.25% share of all stock ETF assets. In 2011? That number was nearly 1.5%.
Folks, that’s not crowded. That’s practically a ghost town.
Central Banks Are Driving This—and They’re Not Selling Anytime Soon
Here’s the real kicker: retail investors haven’t even shown up to the party yet. The gold rally we’re seeing today? That’s almost entirely being driven by central banks.
That’s right. The same folks who run the money printers are quietly buying up gold like their fiat lives depend on it.
And when central banks make a move like this, they’re not flipping it for a 10% gain next quarter. These are multi-decade shifts. They're de-risking from the dollar and repositioning for a world where U.S. debt is out of control and confidence in fiat is on life support.
2011 vs 2025: A Whole New Beast
Let’s compare apples to elephants for a second.
In 2011, the U.S. national debt was $14 trillion. Now? Over $36 trillion—and it’s climbing like a runaway freight train.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted, too. Countries like China, India, Russia, and Turkey are swallowing up gold faster than we can dig it out of the ground. There’s even speculation that China’s reserves may now be double or triple America’s.
Retail demand in Asia is off the charts. And in the West? The average fund manager still thinks gold is a relic. That’s how far behind they are.
Why the “Crowded Trade” Narrative Is Dangerous
Here’s what happens next—and I’ve seen this movie before:
- Fund managers dismiss gold as crowded.
- The price keeps climbing.
- Their clients start asking, “Why don’t we own gold?”
- They panic-buy to save face.
- Boom. Gold takes off like a bottle rocket.
That’s the real crowded trade—the one that hasn’t happened yet.
The minute Wall Street decides to play catch-up, they’ll be elbowing each other to get into bullion and miners. And that’s when prices go vertical.
Where I Think Gold’s Headed Next
Short-term? I could see a pullback. Maybe we test $3,000 again.
But long-term? $4,000 by year-end is absolutely on the table. If central banks keep loading up, and the average Joe starts waking up to this fiat fiasco, we could blow right past that.
We are not at the peak. We’re at the start.
What You Should Do Right Now
If you already own gold and silver—good on you. You’re ahead of the curve.
But don’t stop now. When the rest of the herd shows up, the discounts will vanish. Right now is the quiet before the stampede.
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Final Thought: The Real Crowded Trade Is Ignorance
Wall Street’s definition of “crowded” is laughable. They think just because gold hit new highs, it means everyone’s in.
But here’s what they don’t get: the gold market is tiny compared to the ocean of fiat-based paper assets out there. It wouldn’t take much money rotating out of tech stocks or bonds to send gold—and especially silver and miners—through the roof.
I’ve lived through several of these cycles. And I’m telling you straight: this is just the beginning.
Don’t wait for CNBC to tell you gold is “hot.” By then, it’ll be too late.
Buy dips. Stack smart. And stay ready.
— Frank
