Your Portfolio Strategy for a Trump 2.0 Economy

Reviving the American System: An Unapologetically Nationalist Strategy Under the guidance of Trump’s inner circle—including Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative, and Peter Navarro, former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy—Trump will pursue a modernized version of the "American System." This policy model, born in 1790 under Alexander Hamilton’s vision, held the U.S. economy steady and prosperous for nearly two centuries before being abandoned in the 1960s. The American System relied on three foundational pillars: High Tariffs to protect American jobs and industries. Massive Infrastructure Investment to boost productivity. A Strong Military focused on domestic protection over foreign entanglements. This system prioritized sound money, substantial public investment, and a robust military to safeguard high-paying American jobs. But its fall came with the neo-liberal surge: post-WWI, a band of Austrian economists and libertarians, enthralled with “free markets,” pushed for open borders, global free trade, and economic integration over national sovereignty. This philosophy laid the groundwork for decades of “hollowed-out” American manufacturing, stagnant wages, and unsustainable debt. Now, Trump, Lighthizer, and Navarro aim to reverse this neo-liberal experiment that began with the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and the Trade Act of 1974. Trump’s America-first approach will return sovereignty to the economic sphere, turning the tide on 60 years of globalist policies that have undermined American workers and industries. The implications for investors? Profound. Foreign companies may still sell goods to Americans—but only if they manufacture here. This policy could usher in a tidal wave of foreign investment in American production, a stronger dollar as foreign capital flows into the U.S., higher wages, and a broader tax base. Here’s what to expect: Sectors That Stand to Gain Under Trump Oil, Natural Gas, and Refining Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra will roar back to life. Under his administration, increased federal land leases, expanded offshore drilling, new pipeline projects, and replenished oil reserves could all become realities. Energy independence is the endgame, and this focus on domestic production would propel oil, natural gas, and refining stocks. With OPEC tightening its grip on supply, Trump’s energy policies could be a lifeline, stabilizing prices domestically while amplifying energy sector profits. Mining: Gold, Silver, Copper, and Lithium The expansion of U.S. manufacturing will drive up demand for industrial metals, while an uncertain geopolitical landscape will bolster demand for precious metals. Lithium, essential for the burgeoning tech and defense sectors, will be particularly valuable. A Trump administration, likely to deregulate and incentivize mining, would be a bonanza for domestic miners and producers looking to expand operations. Defense and National Security Trump’s defense policy will prioritize innovation over quantity. He’s not looking to stockpile obsolete equipment but to develop cutting-edge technology that meets modern threats head-on. This will funnel defense dollars into high-tech weapon systems and AI-driven intelligence. Defense contractors and firms with strong R&D capabilities will reap the rewards. Automobile Manufacturing Foreign car manufacturers operating in Mexico or China will face a barrage of tariffs if they attempt to sell to American buyers. Expect tariffs on cars produced abroad to push foreign automakers to build or expand U.S. facilities, benefitting American auto manufacturers. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will likely be reshaped to make foreign production even less attractive. Cryptocurrency Trump’s administration will likely roll back SEC and other regulatory constraints on cryptocurrency mining and usage. A Trump-backed approach to crypto will emphasize financial independence and weaken reliance on digital centralization. For investors, the crypto sector could experience new heights, particularly as a hedge against inflation and fiat instability. Banking and Finance As the Trump administration drives economic growth through infrastructure and manufacturing expansion, banks will profit from the surge in capital demand. This approach will reward traditional lending without the hyper-leveraging risks often associated with Wall Street speculation. Trucking and Airlines Lower fuel costs, spurred by increased oil production, will cut expenses for the trucking and airline sectors. Reduced operating costs and stable fuel supplies will provide significant returns to investors. Sectors Set to Underperform Big Pharma and Big Agriculture Trump’s focus on health reform—under a “Make America Healthy Again” banner—will likely target Big Pharma and industrial agriculture. Tighter regulations on prescription drug pricing, reduced subsidies for chemical-laden agriculture, and support for organic or regenerative practices could hurt corporate profits in these sectors. Meanwhile, RFK Jr., a known critic of vaccine mandates and Big Pharma lobbying, may lead reform efforts that cut into the drug giants' profits. Green Energy and ESG Ventures Expect the “Green New Scam,” as Trump dubs it, to face immediate rollbacks. Renewable energy companies, heavily reliant on government subsidies, will take a hit as Trump refocuses federal funds on traditional energy sectors and domestic manufacturing. This signals rough waters for companies banking on electric vehicles, solar, and wind. China-Dependent Industries Companies with deep investments in China, or those using ESG criteria to target Chinese capital, should brace for impact. Trump has made it clear he intends to decouple from China in key sectors, punishing firms heavily invested in or reliant on the Chinese market. His administration will incentivize domestic production or sourcing from allies. A Historical Warning and a Strategic Playbook The American System succeeded for almost 200 years because it anchored America’s economy in independence and power. Its dismantling by neo-liberal policies hasn’t just weakened American industry; it’s left the U.S. open to exploitation by foreign competitors and beholden to globalist agendas. Trump’s strategy represents a swing back, reclaiming American sovereignty and prosperity from the very institutions that sought to erase it. Skeptics will argue that tariffs and industrial policy stifle innovation. But the historical record suggests otherwise: under the American System, the U.S. built its most formidable industrial base and saw rising wages and global leadership in technology and defense. Neo-liberal globalism, by contrast, has brought us to a precipice of debt, dependency, and job losses that any serious investor can’t afford to ignore. The message is clear: with Trump poised to revive this economic nationalism, savvy investors should align their portfolios to sectors primed for growth under American System 2.0. This isn’t just a financial strategy; it’s a vote for a self-reliant, powerful United States that leads by example.

Your Portfolio Strategy for a Trump 2.0 Economy

Bill Brocius Nov 14

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