Gold’s Reckoning: Why $25,000 to $55,000 an Ounce Isn’t Just Plausible—It’s Inevitable

The financial high priests are sweating behind their velvet curtains, and for good reason: the math no longer works, the trust is evaporating, and gold is whispering its return as the standard of last resort. Analysts at Crescat Capital, an asset management firm, didn’t just light a match at PDAC 2025—they held a flamethrower to the monetary order and pointed directly at the rot in the edifice of U.S. fiscal illusion. Gold at $25,000? Try at least that, if the reaper of monetary truth is knocking. The Math They Don’t Want You Doing Let’s talk numbers, not narratives. The U.S. Treasury is drowning in $36 trillion of outstanding IOUs—paper promises backed by little more than digital dust and fading military dominance. Meanwhile, U.S. gold reserves sit like a relic of better days, with a valuation that covers a mere 2% of that gargantuan debt. In the 1970s, gold backed 17% of U.S. debt. In the 1940s, it covered nearly 40%. You don’t need a PhD in Keynesian delusion to run the math: Revaluing to 17% cover? Gold shoots to $25,000 an ounce. Revaluing to 40%? $55,000 an ounce. Staying at 2%? You're looking at monetary collapse in slow motion. These aren’t moonshot predictions—they’re a mirror held up to the empire’s own accounting books. Costa isn’t forecasting. He’s reminding us that history doesn’t repeat—it rhymes in blood and debasement. Central Banks Know What’s Coming—They’re Hoarding While retail investors chase the next dopamine spike in tech stocks or crypto memes, the real players—the central banks—have been buying gold at a pace not seen in 50 years. Why? Because they’ve read this script before. Every fiat currency in history has died, and this one’s heartbeat is erratic. Meanwhile, U.S. gold reserves haven’t been this thin in 90 years. The last time this divergence between accumulation and domestic disinterest occurred? Right before Bretton Woods unraveled and Nixon killed the gold standard in '71. The next unraveling? Already underway. The Dollar: A Corpse Wearing Makeup Costa doesn’t pull punches on the U.S. dollar either. Overvalued? That’s putting it politely. This is a currency clinging to prestige built in the post-WWII world, now weaponized, inflated, and globally resented. Costa compares today to the Plaza Accord in 1985—a coordinated devaluation to arrest U.S. trade imbalances—and to the 1930s, when gold was seized from citizens and revalued overnight to inflate away debt. Now? The dollar’s dominance rests on inertia and intimidation. But as emerging markets rise and alliances shift (think BRICS+, think de-dollarized oil), that dominance erodes by the hour. And when it breaks, what replaces it won’t be another spreadsheet fantasy—it’ll be hard, scarce, and apolitical. In other words: gold. Silver: The Coiled Spring Beneath the Floorboards Then there’s silver—the monetary stepchild turned sleeping dragon. Costa calls it ready to reassert itself, and he's right. The technicals show a "cup and handle" pattern—an ancient market signal that says: breakout imminent. In today’s terms? A move to $40 an ounce is the appetizer. The main course could challenge, and surpass, its 1980 high of $50, and then keep running. Why? Industrial demand is exploding—solar, EVs, electronics. Supply is collapsing—few new mines, shrinking output. The gold-silver ratio remains grotesquely distorted. This isn't investment advice. It’s a warning. Silver is what gold was in 2001—underpriced, unloved, and ready to blow the lid off a rigged system. The Silent Exit from Tech and the Buffett Cash Bomb Costa’s recommendation to rotate out of tech and into commodities isn’t a trend—it’s a strategic evacuation from overvalued fantasy into real-world assets. U.S. equities trade at absurd multiples while the real economy rots. Buffett himself sits on a war chest of cash, $157 billion by some estimates, waiting to pounce when prices collapse under their own weight. That isn’t patience—that’s predator mode. Follow the apex investor, not the influencers. Emerging markets? Natural resources? They’re not just attractive. They’re the only sane place left when the dollar’s days are numbered and Wall Street is built on leverage, buybacks, and borrowed time. The Big Picture: Revaluation or Ruin Gold won’t ask for permission. It’ll be revalued because the alternative is unthinkable—default, hyperinflation, or global abandonment of U.S. assets. The system has already voted with its feet. Gold is not just a store of value. It’s the audit the empire doesn’t want. And silver? It’s the matchstick beside the powder keg. If you're still thinking in terms of percentages and ETF exposure, you're not getting it. This isn’t about outperforming the S&P. This is about survival, legacy, and sovereignty in a world where the old rules no longer apply—and where the people who made them are fresh out of credibility.

Gold’s Reckoning: Why $25,000 to $55,000 an Ounce Isn’t Just Plausible—It’s Inevitable

Bill Brocius Apr 16

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