Grocery Store Gaslighting: The Truth About Beef, Egg, and Chicken Prices They Think You Won’t Check
The Claim: “Prices Are Falling”
During the latest State of the Union, Americans were told that beef, chicken, and egg prices are declining — that relief is here, that policy is working, that the corner has been turned.
That sounds comforting.
But economic reality doesn’t run on applause lines.
When you step away from the speech and look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, a more complicated — and less flattering — picture emerges.
Beef: Record Highs Don’t Magically Disappear
Let’s start with beef.
Ground beef averaged $6.75 per pound in January — the highest level ever recorded. That’s a 22% increase from a year ago.
Steaks? Still hovering near record highs.
Roasts? Elevated and up double digits year over year.
Yes, some cuts have edged slightly lower from their absolute peak in recent months. But that’s not the same thing as meaningful relief.
If prices climb from $5 to $7 and then slip to $6.90, that’s not a victory. That’s stabilization at painful levels.
Consumers feel levels, not press releases.
Why Beef Is Expensive — And Why Policy Isn’t the Driver
The reality is simpler and less political than the headlines suggest.
The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in decades — in some categories, the lowest since the early 1960s.
Why?
- Persistent drought damaged pasture conditions.
- Feed costs surged.
- Ranchers reduced herd sizes to survive.
- Breeding cycles in cattle take years, not months.
You cannot reverse a multi-year herd contraction with a speech.
Beef supply is structurally tight. Demand, meanwhile, has remained strong — particularly post-pandemic, when at-home cooking and grilling habits surged.
When supply contracts and demand holds steady, prices rise.
That’s not ideology. That’s arithmetic.
Eggs: A Collapse After a Spike
Egg prices are the one category where the data clearly shows a substantial decline.
Prices dropped roughly 59% from their peak.
But context matters.
Those peak prices were driven by a historic outbreak of avian influenza that wiped out tens of millions of egg-laying hens. Over 140 million birds have been lost since 2022.
That wasn’t monetary policy.
That wasn’t a speech.
That was a supply shock.
When the outbreak eased, production partially recovered. Prices reverted closer to normal levels.
A spike caused by disease, followed by normalization, is not the same as structural disinflation.
It’s recovery from an emergency.
Chicken: Quietly Higher
Chicken prices, meanwhile, have ticked up about 1% year over year.
Not catastrophic.
Not dramatic.
But not “down by a lot,” either.
And that matters because chicken often becomes the substitute protein when beef prices surge. When consumers trade down, demand pressure shifts.
Markets adjust. Prices respond.
The Core Issue: Inflation Isn’t a Light Switch
What’s frustrating isn’t that prices move — markets fluctuate all the time.
What’s troubling is the implication that executive action alone steers grocery shelves week to week.
Food prices are shaped by:
- Long production cycles
- Weather events
- Global feed markets
- Labor costs
- Transportation expenses
- Consumer demand patterns
And above all, the broader monetary environment.
Inflation doesn’t begin at the grocery store. It begins with the expansion of the money supply and the distortion of price signals across the economy.
When trillions of dollars enter the system over a short period of time, prices eventually adjust. Not evenly. Not immediately. But persistently.
Beef might spike first.
Eggs might follow after a supply shock.
Chicken might lag.
But the underlying erosion of purchasing power shows up everywhere eventually.
Why Slight Dips Don’t Equal Victory
Politicians often focus on month-over-month changes. Economists and consumers care about purchasing power over time.
If a household paid:
- $5.55 per pound for ground beef in January 2025
- $6.75 per pound in January 2026
That’s the lived reality.
Even if prices flatten or dip slightly from peak levels, the baseline has shifted higher.
That’s the difference between:
“Inflation is slowing.”
and
“Prices are affordable again.”
Those are not the same thing.
Imports, Intervention, and Unintended Consequences
Efforts to increase beef imports may temporarily ease retail pressure.
But interventions carry tradeoffs.
Lower domestic cattle prices squeeze American ranchers already dealing with reduced herd sizes and high input costs. That can discourage rebuilding the herd — prolonging structural shortages.
Short-term relief can create long-term fragility.
Markets are interconnected systems. Push on one lever, something else moves.
The Bigger Picture: Trust the Data, Not the Narrative
The most important takeaway isn’t partisan.
It’s practical.
Beef remains historically expensive.
Eggs normalized after a disease-driven shock.
Chicken is slightly higher.
Inflation has cooled from its peak, but the price level remains elevated across essentials.
Consumers aren’t imagining their grocery bills.
When political rhetoric outpaces statistical reality, trust erodes.
And trust — once lost — is hard to rebuild.
The Bottom Line: Don’t Wait for the Next Shock
If there’s one lesson here, it’s this: prices don’t explode out of nowhere — and they don’t magically fall because someone says they will.
Food inflation, shrinking purchasing power, supply shocks — these are warning signs. They’re signals that the monetary foundation underneath the economy is unstable. And when instability accelerates, governments don’t step back. They step in.
Harder. Faster. Broader.
That’s why you need to understand where this is heading — not just with groceries, but with the financial system itself.
The next phase isn’t just about higher prices. It’s about centralized monetary control, programmable money, and a system where financial autonomy can be adjusted with policy switches.
If you see the warning signs, don’t ignore them.
Download the Digital Dollar Reset Guide by Bill Brocius now. Consider it required intelligence for anyone who refuses to be blindsided by the coming monetary shift.
Preparation isn’t paranoia.
It’s survival.
