Why Gold’s Rally is Just Getting Started—and Could Hit $4,800 by 2030

By Frank Balm, Dedollarize News

You might’ve noticed gold prices wobbling a bit lately, and it’s got some folks wondering if this rally is starting to fizzle out. But according to Ronnie Stoeferle, Managing Partner at Incrementum, we’re far from the top. He’s laid out five solid reasons why gold’s run has plenty of fuel left and could hit $4,800 by 2030—and frankly, I’m with him. Let’s walk through what’s really going on.

1. Gold Isn’t Overvalued, Even at Today’s Prices

Gold recently cracked the $2,600 mark in the spot market, which is impressive. But once you adjust for inflation, the shiny metal still hasn’t hit its all-time high from 1980. Back then, gold was worth about $2,646 in today’s dollars—so despite the recent gains, it’s not overpriced.

It’s also important to remember: inflation stats today don’t tell the whole story. They’ve been tinkering with how inflation is measured since the 1980s, which means the numbers we see now are, well, “massaged.” ShadowStats estimates inflation today would be 8 percentage points higher if measured the old way, meaning gold’s inflation-adjusted high could be much higher than we think.

The takeaway? Even after gold’s 30% jump in just six months, there’s still room to grow. This isn’t 1980, folks—no bubble here.

2. Central Banks Are Gobbling Up Gold

Central banks around the world have been buying gold like it’s going out of style. Sure, China slowed down a bit in early 2024, but India stepped up, adding nearly 19 tonnes to its reserves in Q2 alone. Countries like Poland are loading up too, increasing their gold reserves to 420 tonnes—more than the U.K.

Why are they doing this? Because gold is the ultimate insurance policy. Poland’s central bank president said it best: “No one can question our solvency, even in a crisis.” Central banks know that when things go south, gold is a safer bet than any fiat currency, even the U.S. dollar.

And it’s not just central banks. Over-the-counter (OTC) gold trades exploded by 60% in the first half of 2024 after an eightfold increase in 2023. This shows that demand for gold is alive and kicking across multiple channels, not just official reserves.

3. Interest Rates Are Falling, and That’s Bullish for Gold

If you’ve been following the Fed, you know they recently cut interest rates by 0.5%. That’s the first cut since 2019—and every time the Fed cuts rates, gold prices tend to surge.

Let me break it down:

• After the dot-com bust in the early 2000s, gold jumped 60% during the rate-cutting cycle.
• During the 2008 financial crisis, gold soared 140% as rates were slashed.
• Even in 2019/2020, gold climbed from $1,400 to $1,900 thanks to lower rates, the trade war, and the pandemic.

When interest rates drop, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it a more attractive asset. If this cycle follows the same pattern, we’re looking at another major rally.

4. Weak Western Demand Means There’s Still Room to Run

Here’s the thing: most retail investors in the U.S. and Europe haven’t jumped on the gold train yet. A recent survey found that 71% of advisors had less than 1% of their portfolios in gold. Global ETF holdings are still sitting around 3,200 tonnes—far below the 4,000-tonne peak we saw during the pandemic.

This lagging demand could actually be good news. Investors in the West tend to buy gold late, after prices have already taken off. It’s like showing up late to a party—by the time they realize what’s going on, gold prices could be much higher. If Western ETF demand catches up to historical levels, it’ll add significant upward pressure on the market.

5. Geopolitical Chaos Is Good for Gold

It’s no secret that the world is a mess right now. The war in Ukraine is dragging on, and tensions in the Middle East are heating up. With every new conflict, more countries turn to gold as a hedge against risk.

In fact, central banks have been quietly shifting their reserves away from fiat currencies and into gold. Gold now makes up more global reserves than the euro, sitting firmly in second place behind the U.S. dollar. And with the BRICS summit in Kazan coming up, there’s a growing chance we’ll see even more countries moving away from the dollar, which could boost gold demand further.

So, Where Are We Headed?

Gold’s recent rally might’ve made some folks nervous, but all signs point to more gains ahead. The conditions are perfect—central banks are hoarding gold, rates are falling, Western investors are still on the sidelines, and geopolitical tensions are pushing countries to diversify away from fiat currencies.

Even though gold is trading at around $2,673 today, Incrementum’s forecast of $4,800 by 2030 doesn’t sound so crazy when you look at the bigger picture. In fact, it might be conservative.

So what does this mean for you? Well, it means gold still has a long way to go, and it’s not too late to get in. If you haven’t already, it’s time to seriously consider adding some gold to your portfolio. Remember, the real value of wealth isn’t in paper—it’s in tangible assets.

For more actionable steps on how to protect your savings, check out my guide, "Seven Steps to Protect Yourself from Bank Failure" here. Or head over to Bill’s Innercircle NEWSROOM for the latest insights here.

The bottom line? Gold isn’t just a shiny metal—it’s financial security. And with everything going on, that’s worth more than ever.