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JP MORGAN WARNS GOLD COULD STUMBLE — HERE’S WHY THEY’RE DEAD WRONG

EDITOR'S NOTES

JP Morgan says there’s a reasonable case that gold’s rally could slow down. They point to two risks—central banks might stop buying, and retail investors might lose interest. In this piece, Frank Balm explains why those concerns miss the bigger picture. With global debt climbing, geopolitical tensions simmering, and central banks still diversifying reserves, the structural case for gold and silver remains strong. If you’re wondering whether this rally has legs, read on.

Gold’s Rally Isn’t Hype — It’s a Warning Signal

Gold is up more than 170% in five years. That doesn’t happen because people are bored. It happens because something underneath the system is shifting.

JP Morgan admits the drivers: geopolitical instability, inflation concerns, currency debasement, and reckless fiscal policy. In plain English? Governments are spending too much, tensions are rising, and confidence in fiat currencies isn’t what it used to be.

Gold thrives when trust erodes. And trust, my friend, is under pressure.

I grew up in a working-class household where you didn’t gamble with what little you had. You protected it. That’s what this move in gold feels like to me—not speculation, but protection.

The Central Bank “Risk” That Isn’t Really a Risk

One argument is that central banks could stop buying gold.

Technically, yes. Anything is possible. But look at behavior, not theory.

Since 2022, central banks have accelerated gold purchases. Emerging markets hold far less gold as a percentage of reserves than developed nations. China, for example, still has a relatively small portion of reserves in gold compared to Western economies.

If anything, there’s room to buy—not dump.

JP Morgan even notes that the overwhelming majority of central banks expect global gold holdings to rise, not fall. Governments don’t usually sell their financial insurance in uncertain times. And we are very much in uncertain times.

Retail Investors Aren’t in a Mania

The second concern is that everyday investors could abandon gold if headlines calm down.

But ETF holdings are below previous peaks. That’s not euphoria. That’s cautious participation.

Regular folks aren’t piling in because it’s trendy. They’re hedging against rising living costs, volatile markets, and ballooning national debt. Many are simply looking for something tangible in a world that feels increasingly digital and fragile.

Gold doesn’t need excitement. It needs uncertainty. And uncertainty hasn’t gone anywhere.

The Bigger Picture Wall Street Can’t Ignore

Debt levels remain elevated. Fiscal discipline is still lacking. Geopolitical fragmentation is ongoing. These are structural forces, not short-term news cycles.

I often compare fiat currency to a car that starts losing value the moment you drive it off the lot. It may run fine for years, but depreciation is baked in. Gold, on the other hand, has preserved purchasing power across centuries of political and monetary experiments.

That doesn’t mean gold only goes up. It won’t. There will be pullbacks. But the long-term case rests on fundamentals that haven’t reversed.

And let’s not forget silver. Historically, when gold builds a strong base, silver often follows—sometimes with more momentum. It plays a different role, but it belongs in the same conversation about diversification.

Preparation Beats Prediction

After decades in finance, here’s what I know: you don’t have to predict the exact top or bottom to protect yourself. You just have to recognize when risks are elevated and act responsibly.

Gold and silver aren’t about betting on collapse. They’re about balance. They’re about resilience in a system that’s carrying a lot of weight.

JP Morgan may debate whether the rally pauses. That’s their job. My job is to look at the broader landscape and ask whether the reasons people bought gold in the first place have disappeared.

They haven’t.

Join the Inner Circle

If you want clear, grounded analysis on gold, silver, central bank trends, and what it all means for your savings, I invite you to join our Dedollarize Inner Circle.

Inside, we go beyond headlines and break down the real forces shaping the global monetary system—without the Wall Street spin.

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The system is changing. You can either react late—or prepare early.

I know which one I’d choose.