Powell Admits the Labor Beast Is Wounded — But Wall Street and Washington Pretend It Isn’t
The Labor Market Facade Cracks
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a rare moment of candor, admitted that beneath the veneer of “low unemployment,” the U.S. labor market is showing deep, structural rot. Speaking at the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) after snagging the Adam Smith Award, Powell acknowledged what dissidents have warned: the official stories have been masking erosion.
Data Delays, But the Story Still Leaks Out
Because of a government shutdown, the vital reports for September jobs and inflation are stalled — giving the Fed and its cheerleaders more time to spin. But Powell couldn’t hide it: “available data” show that payroll additions have dwindled sharply, and immigration and participation rates are dragging the supply side downward.
Declining Immigration and Labor Participation Take Their Toll
The fallout? A labor market that’s softer, less dynamic, and far more fragile than the public is told. He confessed that the usual safety floor — a steady rate of new entrants into the labor force — is failing. With immigration restricted and participation stagnant, the slack in the system is growing.
Layoffs, Hiring, and Perceptions All Down
Even though the September numbers haven’t yet dropped, Powell says what we are seeing is consistent: layoffs and hiring are both muted, firms struggle to find suitable candidates, and consumers report bleaker job prospects — all pointing downward. The congestion of weak signals is loud.
Shrinking from Both Ends: Supply and Demand Collapse
He also admitted something unsaid by most technocrats: supply and demand in the labor market have contracted “sharply, so quickly.” In other words, the economy is shrinking from both ends. That might explain why unemployment has barely budged — because the ballet of decline is symmetrical.
Inflation Blame Game: Tariffs or Truth?
On inflation, Powell trotted out his usual line: it remains above target, pushed by tariff pressures rather than general excess demand. That’s his convenient scapegoat. Yes, prices are rising — but his framing suggests the Fed is more a victim than an instigator.
No Risk-Free Path: Inflation or Unemployment? Pick Your Poison
He warned that inflation “appears” to continue rising gradually, which means the Fed is stuck in no‑man’s land. If they ease rates too fast, inflation becomes the monster again. If they stay tight too long, jobs get crushed.
The Fed’s Mandate Is Now a Contradiction
The Fed’s mandate—maximum employment and stable prices—is now a Rorschach test. Each path demands opposing action. Powell admitted there's “no risk‑free path forward.” Move too fast one way, and inflation returns with a vengeance. Move too slow the other way, and the unemployment abyss yawns.
Cutting Rates in a Minefield
Despite these admissions, the Fed already cut rates in September, even though inflation remains stubborn. Powell cautions that this daring move could backfire: if cuts persist, the Fed may need to “come back later and finish” the inflation fight.
From Solid Ground to Shaky Foundations
He says they’ve maintained a “restrictive stance” so far because the labor market “was still pretty solid.” But that solidity has softened. The data after July — especially the shocking revisions back to May — forced the Fed’s hand: the risks are now perched closer to balance.
Call to Action
Don’t let the Fed’s spin and media gloss lull you into complacency. The labor market is weakening, inflation is still stalking the chains of the economy, and the powers-that-be are scrambling for cover. If you want real defense against this monetary schizophrenia, download Seven Steps to Protect Yourself from Bank Failure by Bill Brocius. It’s not just a guide — it’s a map for survival.
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