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3% GDP Growth, 100% Deception: How Bessent is Spinning Risk as Recovery

EDITOR'S NOTES

When Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took to the airwaves proclaiming a rosy 3% GDP growth by year’s end—despite shutdowns, trade disruptions, and inflation—he wasn’t just selling policy. He was peddling a narrative. But what would Milton Friedman, the Nobel-winning economist who spent a lifetime dismantling economic illusions, say about this political stagecraft? Let’s walk through Bessent’s claims, one-by-one, through the lens of Friedman’s monetary realism.

Derek Wolfe Dec 9, 25

“We’re going to finish the year with 3% real GDP growth.”

GDP ≠ Economic Health

GDP is a blunt tool. It measures output, not wellbeing. You can inflate GDP by building ghost cities or running up government spending on wasteful projects—but that doesn’t mean the average person is thriving.

This 3% projection leans heavily on a statistical sleight-of-hand: falling imports. That boosts GDP mechanically, but it’s not a sign of rising productivity or true economic vitality. In fact, it may point to declining consumer power or distortion from panicked trade policies.

Verdict: Growth without context is just a headline.

“The contraction in Q1 was due to import surges before tariffs.”

Accounting Games ≠ Real Growth

Imports subtract from GDP due to a technical quirk, not economic logic. When Americans rush to import goods ahead of new tariffs, it's a rational response to bad policy—not a collapse. When those imports vanish the next quarter, GDP “rises,” but nothing real has improved.

Both the dip and the rebound are noise—signs of deeper instability triggered by erratic trade and monetary manipulation.

Verdict: You can’t build a stable economy on fear-driven trade distortions.

“Real incomes are up 1%. Affordability is improving.”

Inflation Hits First—Wages Lag

This is a classic illusion. Inflation hits hard and fast. Wages take years to catch up—if they ever do. A 1% bump in real income doesn’t undo the erosion caused by years of price spikes. Families don't care about macro averages; they care about whether they can afford dinner.

This isn’t about “voter perception.” It’s simple math: if prices jump 15% and wages rise 5%, you're poorer.

Verdict: A delayed 1% income bump doesn’t heal a 10% inflation wound.

“We pulled inflation down from the worst levels in 50 years.”

Cooling Inflation Isn’t Victory—It’s the Minimum

The administration wants applause for bringing inflation down to 3%, but where’s the accountability for causing it in the first place? Stimulus binges and loose monetary policy flooded the system. Prices exploded. Now we’re supposed to be grateful they exploded slightly slower?

The real question: is the system under control—or are we just catching our breath before the next spike?

Verdict: Inflation may cool, but unless monetary discipline holds, it will roar back.

“Democrats created affordability problems with energy policy and overregulation.”

Regulation Can Sting, but Only Money Printing Burns

Sure, energy policy and red tape can squeeze supply and raise prices. But these are accelerants—not the core issue. The heart of inflation lies in a central bank that printed trillions while productivity stagnated.

Blaming regulations while ignoring the money spigot is like blaming sparks for a forest fire and ignoring the barrel of gasoline.

Verdict: Regulation can sting, but only money printing burns.

“Next year we’re moving toward prosperity.”

Hope Is Not a Plan

Prosperity isn’t a forecast—it’s a consequence. And it’s not built on wishful thinking or massaged numbers. It’s built on hard monetary discipline, real production, and the absence of short-term manipulation.

Wild swings in GDP aren’t recovery—they’re symptoms of deeper rot.

Verdict: Don’t confuse better numbers with better economics.

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