Is The US On A Path To Civil War? Ray Dalio Says Yes.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, we presume, has successfully navigated the world of uncertainty and risk with a keen sense of objectivity and shrewdness, never to be swayed by tail risk jolts, and never to be fooled into complacency by normative models of how the world is “supposed” to work (versus the reality of it all). In a post describing his latest book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, he warns of a disturbing trend that, according to his risk assessment, is escalating. The signs of a US “civil war” of some sort are slowly emerging. This isn’t so much a prediction, as Dalio says, but an observation and a warning. Perhaps you too have sensed this development in the hostile divisiveness we’re seeing in American politics. So, what are the signs that Dalio sees? Read on. 

• Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said on Thursday that the US appears to be on the path to "some form of civil war."
• Dalio said the country is witnessing greater amounts of populism and extremism.
• He outlined his thoughts in a LinkedIn post that summarized excerpts from his book.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said on Thursday that the US appears to be on the path to "some form of civil war."

Dalio based his analysis on historical cases — arguing that the combination of financial burdens, such as large deficits, high taxes and inflation, and large wealth and value gaps in a nation "leads to some sort of fighting for control."   

"Maybe my views are right and maybe they're wrong," he wrote in a LinkedIn post summarizing excerpts from his book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order." "My goal is simply to pass along what I see for you to consider for yourself."

Dalio is the founder and co-chief investor of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, with nearly $150 billion in assets under management.

He also argued that the country is witnessing greater amounts of populism and extremism, and outlined what he believes is a path to civil war through the lens of historical examples. A big divide, he said, is the gap between right-wing and left-wing politics, where both "sides" are "unwilling to compromise." 

First, he said, extremists become the majority and respecting the rule of law becomes secondary to winning at all costs. Them, he argued, both moderates and the ability to compromise become diluted, leading to civil wars.  

"Notably, when that happens at the same time as there are foreign powers that are becoming strong enough to challenge the leading world power that is encountering this civil war dynamic, it is an especially risky period,"  he added, saying that he thinks the US is currently in this period. 

"By most of the measures that I use, the current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war." 

Originally posted on Business Insider.